The interest rate has the power to make or break an economy. In the last two years, RBI has not just intervened across the maturity curve, it has guided the market expectations through open commentaries about the level of bond yields, the shape of the yield curve and also through tactical interventions in primary debt auctions. In the face of large government bond supply, these actions have reduced volatility and induced an uneasy calm in the bond market.
Market Turbulence
The RBI induced calm in the bond market has been broken
in the past few weeks. Bond yields have moved up by 20-30 basis points. The
market witnesses a broad based selling, seen across the maturity curve. Even
the 10-year benchmark government bond, which was tightly held around 6% by the RBI,
broke out of its shell. In the short run, RBI’s action will remain the key
driver for the Indian bond market. The central bank has already committed to
purchase Rs. 1.2 trillion of government bonds under GSAP 2.0 in Q2 FY 22. Given
the extraordinarily large size of the government’s borrowing requirement, RBI
will have to continue its market interventions well into the future to maintain
calm in financial markets. It is expected the RBI will buy Rs. 4.0-4.5 trillion
of central and state government bonds in FY 22. This should extend some support
to the market. However, we expect the RBI will continue to lower its other
tactical market interventions like auction cancellations, devolvement, special
OMOs, etc. and will allow market forces to adjust to economic reality.
Over the medium term, inflation and potential monetary
policy normalization will play a more important role in shaping the interest
rate trajectory. With gradual progress in vaccination and inflation picking up,
talks of policy normalization will intensify. We believe bond yields have
already bottomed out and expect it to move higher over the next 1-2 years.
What should fixed income
investors do?
Investors should acknowledge that the best of the bond
market rally is now behind us. At this time, it would be prudent to lower the
return expectations from fixed income products – fixed deposits rate will
remain low and potential capital gains from long bond funds will be muted.
Conservative investors should remain invested in
categories like liquid funds where the impact of interest rate rise would be
favorable. However, while selecting a liquid fund be cautious of the credit
quality and liquidity of the underlying portfolio. At this point where fixed
deposit rates have come down to historical lows, liquid funds could be an
option (with market risk) in comparison to locking in long term fixed deposits.
Liquid funds invest in up to 91- day maturity debt securities, which get
re-priced higher when interest rates rise. Fixed deposits interest rates remain
fixed for the entire tenor thus losing out during a rising interest rate cycle.
Investors with a higher risk appetite and longer holding
period can consider dynamic bond funds where the fund manager has the
flexibility to change the portfolio when the market view changes. These funds
are best suited for long term fixed income allocation goals. However, do
remember that bond funds are not fixed deposits, and their returns could be
highly volatile and even negative in a short period.