There is no ideal time to enter and exit the stock market. So, instead of being swayed by market volatility, focus on what you can control and keep a long-term holding horizon.
The life of an average investor during the last
six months was a turbulent one. From April till August, it had made a
significant recovery, climbing up by 31%. Within a short span of six months,
Investors witnessed both sudden fall and smart recovery of the index. Given
this background, many are wondering what will happen next. The question in
most investors mind is whether they should sell a significant part of their
equity holdings now as probably the market may fall or hold on to their shares.
What caused this volatility?
The COVID-19 pandemic which started at the
beginning of the year is one of the major reasons for such market volatility.
Though the virus was reported sometimes in December 2019, the impact was felt
across the world especially within developed economies. Markets across the
globe collapsed during March. The BSE Sensex touched a low in March 23 and on
the same day S&P 500 of the US reached the bottom at 2237. The governments
of various nations announced various preventive and relief measures, series of
lockdowns, etc. Countries across the globe reported sharp reduction in their
GDP coupled with the impact of pandemic leading to salary cuts, jobs losses and
shutting down of businesses. India reported GDP contraction of 23.9% on year on
year basis during the first quarter of financial year 2020-21.
Focus on only what matters
The entire world is anxious to now when this
crisis will get over, but nobody has any concrete answer. Generally, during
such pandemics, various assumptions and theories float around but no one knows
when normal times will be back. In a way, uncertainty is an investor's friends.
Those who have invested during march are reaping the benefits and those who
simply stayed put and waited patiently have also recouped their losses. Thus,
it does not matter how hard you try - you cannot wish away the crisis. But make
sure that you follow your investment plan and if required, mare suitable changes
according to your income levels, risk taking capacity etc.
Is it a good time to exit the market?
Investment science literature and a large number
of empirical studies states that market movement should not be the reason to
buy or sell shares. As an investor you should sell shares only on tow
occasions. One, if you need the money urgently and two when investment goals
are achieved. If that is not the case, it is advisable to follow your original
investment plan. As an investor you should care about your initial investment
and value while exiting. Assuming that your investment goals are nearing, do no
wind up your portfolio. Instead make a systematic withdrawal plan (SWP). If
there is no immediate requirement of funds, transfer your corpus to safer
instruments such as liquid or short duration debt funds, again through
systematic transfer plan.
To conclude, there is no ideal time to enter and
exit the stock market and focus on what you can control and keep a long term
holding period.
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